More On: btc
Okay, I'll take a break from calling bitcoin down from great heights to say $13,000 now. I need to create a strategy essay that no one will read but will address the question: is crypto a
There is just one call to make in a boom or a crash. Is the asset legitimate, or is it a pile of garbage going through the boom and bust cycle of public market marketing that the audience loves to bet on but isn't a long-term asset?
This call is as important for crypto as it was for the dotcom boomsters, Nifty Fiftyers, and Tulip-Bulbers of yesteryear.
Many individuals assume that crypto has no "intrinsic" value, especially now that bitcoin is collapsing. You may speculate on what intrinsic means, but the bottom line is: Is crypto a pile of worthless poop?
The solution is in the question, as it is in every excellent exam exercise. Manure, too, has intrinsic worth.
Crypto has value because it serves a purpose.
Crypto has much more applications than horse manure, many of which are far more significant than cultivating roses.
At its most basic, any cockroach you can back in a race has a lot of utility because anything a human can bet on has a lot of utility, and the difference between a Kentucky yearling in a $100 billion a year racing industry and a cheap supply of excellent burger meat is simply down to the use case of speculation, and we know there is a lot of gambling on the price of crypto. Racehorses have an inherent value of $100 billion at 1x sales, whereas bitcoin, a breakthrough technology, is only worth three times that of transportation technology that is 100 years old.
Meanwhile, the "dark economy" accounts for between 10% of total global GDP in wealthy countries and 40% in those insane emerging economies where financial anarchy reigns. What is the inherent worth of cryptocurrency? In addition, there is over $1.5 trillion in "fiat" banknote currency circulating in the dark economy, thus crypto is a sideshow when it comes to illicit transactions. Nobody knows how many untold billions of "dodgy" fiat money is blissfully floating about inside the banking system, so don't dismiss crypto's inherent worth as a result.
However, speculation and illegal behavior account for just a small portion of the real worth of cryptocurrency.
The most significant benefit is implicit in its challenge to incumbent rent seekers. As an example, consider banks.
Have you noticed how banks have stepped up their game since bitcoin entered the public consciousness? Three-day transfers have been replaced with rapid payments. The greatest institutions are responding to the new realities of crypto and fintech. Finance is now known as 'TradFi,' and it is expected to become as popular as 'Trad Jazz' in the near future. It will be charming, but it will no longer be at the top of the charts.
The banking example is simply the tip of the iceberg, and that iceberg will sink a lot of market abusive oligopolies, which are everywhere if you search for them. Crypto is the death of gatekeepers, which is why gatekeepers dislike it, and gatekeepers have considerable influence. Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for us, you can't put new technology back in its box. Crypto cannot be undone, and laggards will, like the horse as a mode of transportation, become outdated at every level if crypto is not accepted.
What will not be 'crypto' in the next 20 years?
On top of that crypto world will most likely still be bitcoin. If it does not, it will be some new cryptocurrency, one that will begin as nuppence and rise to the moon.
CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) can never catch up since money cannot be programmed. It may take a century for a government to stake its whole economy on the improbable likelihood of their sovereign currency being free of flaws or hackers, thus private crypto will dominate future development.
In a society where many people still believe paper money is garbage and gold is the ultimate currency, more than 1,000 years after some bright spark came up with the notion, it is not unexpected that many people believe cryptocurrency is rubbish, especially during a downturn. However, in a world where cow manure, or BS to most of us, is worth $20 per ton, tokens that unlock applications such as DeFi, NFTs, the Metaverse, a bet on the next moon, and some quality vape, while beginning to turn the world of commerce and governance upside down, can, will, and deserve to command a percentage point or two of capital markets' $200 trillion market cap.
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