More On: bitcoin
In my last update in late May, see here, I predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) would fall to as low as $23K +/-1K. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $21,000.
As a result, BTC fell as expected but surpassed the ideal (!) target zone. I use the term "ideal" because it is based on standard/textbook Fibonacci-based projections, which are all that is available at first. However, Bitcoin, like any other publicly traded financial asset, is not required to take an ideal path.
Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis
As a result of the "breakdown," we should re-evaluate and revise the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)-based target zone. Zooming out is an excellent way to accomplish this. Figures 1 and 2 depict the overall EWP counts I am tracking for BTC.
Figure 1: Monthly Bitcoin charts with a detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
One more Bull run higher vs. two more Bull runs higher.
Even though BTC is falling faster than expected, my long-term upside target remains the same once this correction is over: $100K+. Figure 1 depicts a path for Bitcoin to reach this astronomical level. In this case, BTC should be in the fourth wave of the cycle. Cycle waves 1 and 2 were completed in 2011, according to my observations. C-4 appears to be morphing into a zig-zag in more detail.
This zig-ideal zag's target zone is $25905-12125 (C=0.618x A to C=A). As previously stated, based on the smaller waves and perfect path, $24-22K appeared to be a very viable target zone at first. However, given that we can only "anticipate, monitor, and adjust," the latter is now prudent.
Once C-4 is completed, which will require a break back above the recent highs in May, C-5 should be a 1000 percent rally from those lows based on previous halving cycles. See this page.
Thus, depending on where BTC bottoms (think high- to low-$10,000s), we can extrapolate the Cycle 5 target in greater detail.
The second alternative, and please keep in mind that I do not have a bearish EWP count that indicates BTC will immediately fall to $0 from current levels, suggests the cryptocurrency has two more legs higher to go: major-5 of Cycle-3 and Cycle-5. See Figure 2 for more information.
Figure 2: Monthly Bitcoin charts with a detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
Cycle wave three will aim for $100,000 or more, but a larger 4th and 5th wave will follow: Cycle waves 4 and 5. The former should return Bitcoin to around $30-50K before a rally to $300-500K. (see also here). This option becomes invalid when BTC trades below the 2019 highs ($13600), because the first and fourth waves of an impulse cannot overlap.
Bottom Line and Bitcoin Price Prediction
As a result, we now have a clear set of parameters/if-then scenarios. If BTC can stay above $13600 and rally back above the May highs, and eventually the March highs, it has the potential to reach $300,000+ in the coming years.
However, if BTC crosses that level at any time, the Bitcoin Bull will come to an end once it reaches $100K+. So, in any case, we are now prepared. Being forewarned is being forearmed.
From: Dr. Arnout Ter Schure, Fx Empire
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