Blockware predicts 10% Bitcoin adoption by 2030

Bitcoin, like the internet and social media, benefits from "network effects," where increased usage boosts value and encourages more take-up.

According to a new analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) acceptance could occur faster than the adoption of earlier disruptive technologies such as vehicles and electric power, with global usage expected to reach 10 percent by 2030.

In a report published on June 8, Blockware Intelligence stated that it arrived at this prediction by analyzing historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies, including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet, and social media, as well as the adoption growth rate of Bitcoin since 2009.

“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but [...] newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”

Using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, together with Bitcoin's adoption growth rate, the research was able to make its projection.

On the basis of a statistic titled Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin's expected "CAGR of 60 percent," the report estimated that global Bitcoin usage will surpass 10 percent in 2030.

You may expect Blockware Intelligence, the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure business, to be bullish on adoption.

Given direct monetary incentives to adopt, the current macro-environment, and the fact that adoption growth will be expedited by the internet, the intelligence unit predicts Bitcoin adoption will achieve saturation faster than most other disruptive technologies.

The paper notes, "From a consumer's perspective, earlier innovations offered convenience/efficiency-related incentives to adopt them: adopting vehicles allowed you to whiz past the horse and carriage, and adopting the cell phone allowed you to make calls without being tethered to a landline."

“With Bitcoin direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin, like the internet, cellphones, and social media, experiences a phenomenon known as the "network effect" when more people use the technology.

"For example, if you were the sole user on Twitter, would it be useful? It would not be the case. More users increase the value of these systems."

Nonetheless, the authors of the Blockware research emphasized that the model used to anticipate the pace of adoption was conceptual at this level, noting that it is neither intended to be used as financial advice nor as a short-term trading tool, and that it will continue to be modified. However:

“The general trend is clear; there is a high probability that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price.”

Several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital, reviewed the study and model.

Adoption of cryptocurrencies has increased dramatically over the past few years. According to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway, the global crypto ownership rate reached an average of 3.9% in 2021, with more than 300 million crypto users globally.

The global usage of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies increased 881 percent between July 2020 and June 2021, according to the blockchain analytics platform Chainanalysis. Vietnam was determined to have the highest adoption of cryptocurrencies among the 154 nations evaluated, followed by India and Pakistan.

In April, a survey performed by cryptocurrency exchange Gemini revealed that crypto usage increased in 2021 in nations such as India, Brazil, and Hong Kong, as more than half of respondents from its 20 questioned countries claimed that they began investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021.

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