Bitcoin Quarterly Forecast: BTC to exceed $100,000 before the next bear market

For the second quarter and beyond, we'll take a look back at Bitcoin's performance, as well as an outlook for the next.

Conclusion

  1. The price of bitcoin was the same at the end of the quarter.
  2. Bitcoin is likely to go even higher, reaching or even exceeding all-time highs.
  3. The end of Q2 could be a bad time for the market.

This is how the price of Bitcoin changed in the first three months of 2022:

The price of bitcoin hasn't changed much over the last three months (January 2022 – March 2022). This is a comparison to the 3-month candlesticks in Q4 2021. They look very similar to each other now. The last 3-month candlestick in 2021 has a huge wick/shadow that made new all-time highs, then there was a lot of selling pressure that closed the 3-month candlestick with a small gain. Bitcoin started the fourth quarter of 2021 at $43,829 and ended it at $46,218, so it went up and down a lot.

bitcoin
BTC/USD Quarterly Chart

For Q1 2022, the opposite happened. The price of Bitcoin went down and hit new six-month lows, then rallied and closed close to where the 3-month candlestick opened. There were 46,209 bitcoins in circulation at the start of the first quarter, and they closed at $45,536.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Q1 2022 report.

You can see this by looking at the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. It shows that the price of Bitcoin is still mostly up. Since Q2 2021, the three-month Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have been BTC's main support. Between Q3 and Q4 of 2022, there could be a Kumo Twist. This could signal a bearish turnaround that could last well into 2024.

bitcoin price
Quarterly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart

Bitcoin's price isn't doing very well in the Relative Strength Index or the Composite Index from an oscillator's point of view. But the Optex Bands oscillator is near all-time lows, which is bad news for us.

Bitcoin's price forecast for the second quarter of 2022

It looks like the cryptocurrency market is going through a normal consolidation phase after it broke out in Q2 2020 and finished in Q1 2021. In Technical Analysis 101, when there is a lot of consolidation after a big move, it has a good chance of turning into a new trend. In this case, the trend will go higher.

Except for Q2 2021, Q2 has been one of the best quarters for the price of Bitcoin:

  • Q2 2011 – 1,952% gain
  • Q2 2012 – 36.29% gain
  • Q2 2013 – 4.82% gain
  • Q2 2014 – 40.22% gain
  • Q2 2015 – 7.52% gain
  • Q2 2016 – 61.15% gain
  • Q2 2017 – 127.18% gain
  • Q2 2018 – 7.74% loss
  • Q2 2019 – 162.61% gain
  • Q2 2020 – 42.19% gain
  • Q2 2021 – 40.40% loss

In the last ten years, the average return for Q2 has been 43.38 percent, which is a lot. In Q2 2022, if Bitcoin prices rose by 43.38 percent, they would be worth $65,288. That's just short of the all-time high of $68.958, which was set in June of that year.

Zones where prices meet

If prices have never been at those prices before, how do they figure out what prices will be in the future? A lot of different types of analysis should be done to think about and predict how the price of something might change in the future.

Elliot Wave Theory, natural harmonic values found in the light and sound spectrum, and methods used by Tony Plummer, a great Gann analyst, will be used in this analysis. I will use the Square of 9, Gann's Wheel of 24, Gann's Hexagon Chart, and Fibonacci Expansion zones.

The results of this study found that Bitcoin's price could rise in two main areas above where it is now in 2022.

In the Price Zone: $92,094 - $101,856

This range doesn't need a lot of complicated math to figure out how important it is. It is the most important price level that Bitcoin will reach since it first broke into the $10,000 range. Inside Octave of Fa, 180-degree Square of 9, 90-degree Dynamic Hexagon Angle and $100,000 level are all in this range of points.

In addition, the $101,856 figure is based on how much Bitcoin has grown in the past and assuming that it will grow the same rate from one phase to the next. 347 percent more money was made in April than it was at the start of the month, or $101,856.

$123,672–138,078 is the Price Zone.

Inside the Octave Ti, 661.8 percent Fibonacci expansion, 360-degree Dynamic Hex Angle, 360-degree Square of 9 Angle, and 100 percent Fibonacci Confluence Zone are all found in this range.

Analysis of time cycles

In addition to predicting what prices will be in the future, the same thing can be done with time. Most of the time cycle analysis comes from Gann's work on major and minor time cycles and how he used astronomical cycles to look at time. The Hurst Cycle Analysis and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system's Time Principle are added to the time studies to make them even more interesting and useful.

After this analysis is done, a huge cluster of cycles finish and come together from mid-June 2022 to July 2022. People say that in June and July 2022, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach or be close to a new all-time high. In the time clusters, the following time cycle analysis method is used:

  • Gann's Square of 9 dates.
  • Gann's Cycle of the Inner year day counts.
  • Gann's Master Square of 12 weekly counts.
  • Gann's Master Square of 12 monthly counts.
  • Ichimoku Monthly Kumo Twist
  • Lunar Phase (New and Full Moons)
  • Lunar Apogee and Perigee
  • Hurst Cycles
  • Mid-Point of Gann's Square of a Range
  • Planetary Aspects
  • Anniversary Dates
  • Declination Cycle

The 850-day bull run for Bitcoin

While there isn't enough data to complete a cycle analysis for all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, some of the cycles are the same. Both Bitcoin and Bitcoin show that their bull runs last about 850 days (sometimes less, sometimes more).

In 2020, the crash of Covid-19 is likely to break the Cycle, and it's not clear how long it will last. The most likely reason for that event ending was not just Covid, but the end of the first 10 years of Bitcoin's first cycle. During the crash, there was a kind of reset button. The high point of the bull market is likely to come around the 854th day.

Ceres' Cycle of Declination

Perhaps the most important part of this analysis is the big asteroid Ceres' Declination Cycle. There are times when the price of Bitcoin is so close to the Ceres Declination swing cycle that it is almost too close to be true at times.

Bitcoin is very sensitive to this Cycle and has been for almost 12 years now. This Cycle is very important to Bitcoin. Mid-June 2022 is when the current Ceres Declination Cycle is at its peak. In early July 2022, it starts to go south. When the Ceres Declination cycles start to go down, more Gann and astronomical cycle dates come together. All dates for 2022:

  • June 4 – Geocentric Mars Conjunct Jupiter exits
  • June 14 – 90-degree Square of 9 Date (from the 2020 Covid crash low)
  • June 30 – New Moon, Moon Apogee
  • July 14 – Full Moon, Moon Perigee
  • July 7 – Gann Seasonal Date
  • July 15 – New Square of a Range Time Cycle
  • July 15 – 854th day from the 2020 Covid crash low
  • July 27 – Earth Conjunct Pallas begins

Dates of importance beyond 2022, even 2023, can be forecasted. In 2024, a significant swing low of importance is likely to occur during the low of the Ceres Declination cycle.

Ceres Declination Cycle bottoms around September 23, 2024, and begins to turn higher around October 4, 2024

  • August 14, 2024 – Geocentric Mars Conjunct Jupiter
  • August 20, 2024 – Full Moon, Moon Perigee
  • September 7 to September 17, 2024 – Mars Out-Of-Bounds
  • September 14, 2024 – 90-degree Square of 9 dates (from the 2020 Covid crash low)

Putting it all together

BTC/USD Quarterly Chart
BTC/USD Quarterly Chart

April 2022 through July 2022

When it comes to Bitcoin, April is usually one of the best times of the year to buy. The rest of April should see a steady increase in prices, which should last until the end of June and the beginning of July, if history is any guide.

July 15 is most likely when the real selling pressure starts.

July 2022 through January 2023

Weakness and selling pressure are likely to cause a 30% to 40% drop from the all-time highs, then a rebound in January 2023.

January 2023 through April 2023

Between the end of April 2023 and the beginning of May 2023, the rally for help is likely to end.

May 2023 through October 2024

In May 2023, the price of Bitcoin will start to rise again, but it will only be for a short time. In the fall of 2024, the price will start to fall again. The lows of 2024 are likely to match the current median retracement percentages for Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. These percentages are 75% to 83%. However, depending on how many institutions are involved, the rate of withdrawal could be slowed down a lot. For example, between 42% and 51% of institutions could be involved, which would slow down the withdrawal rate.

In the second quarter, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise.

At least $100,000 or $138,000 before late June 2022 to mid-July 2022.

** Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of USA GAG nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

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