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President Biden is releasing the first images of the James Webb Space Telescope—a reminder of how technology has come a long way since humans took that one small step in 1969. What’s the future of NASA’S human missions?
In a May 1788 letter, Thomas Jefferson observed, “The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield, and government to gain ground.” I’m not sure whether that is true, but I do know that when the private sector gains ground, the government should yield.
That’s what I thought of when reading a Wall Street Journal review by James Meigs of “The End of Astronauts: Why Robots Are the Future of Exploration” by Donald Goldsmith and Martin Rees. Meigs summarizes the book’s theme: “in almost all cases, space exploration is too important to leave to fallible, vulnerable human beings” because “almost anything humans can do, robots can do faster, cheaper and—increasingly—better.” Thus, it appears that we should send robots on space missions, not humans.
The price variations are substantial. According to Meigs, the Perseverance rover, which touched down on Mars in 2021, is currently exploring the planet in search of life while also gathering important data and drilling for rock samples. Costing $2.75 billion was the mission. However, a "human outpost on Mars would need life support, radiation shielding from the sun and space, and more. One estimate states that it would cost more than $100 billion only to put astronauts in Mars' orbit.Government space initiatives are the principal subject of Goldsmith and Rees. For the price of one human trip, NASA could fund dozens of robotic expeditions. But Meigs points out that recent initiatives in the private space have led to significant advancements by affluent businesspeople. There are big proposals for space tourism and other private space initiatives from Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, and others. According to one estimate cited by Meigs, $15 billion will be invested by private investors in firms focused on space in 2021. Musk and others are partially supported by NASA's budget, but they have also invested a significant amount of their own cash.
Isn't it time to end NASA's human missions given the ambitious plans for private human space flight? The government ought to acquiesce because the private sector has made progress. The private sector has demonstrated that it can conduct space missions for a much lower cost than NASA. Cost overruns at NASA are well-known. The International Space Station's construction cost soared from $17 billion to $74 billion.
The breakdown of NASA's $23.4 billion budget for 2022 may be seen in the graph below. Deep Space Exploration, which accounts for $6.5 billion, and Space Operations, which accounts for $3.9 billion, combined account for 44% of NASA's budget. Robotic missions are funded from the budget's Science line item. I am aware that other NASA budget initiatives, such as those related to building, security, technology, and safety, support both human and robotic missions. Last but not least, keep in mind that NASA only funds projects for civil use; projects for military use in space are supported by the Space Force and other organizations. Space Force spending is about $20 billion a year. Basic NASA budget data is here.
Given the need to reduce large budget deficits, most federal agencies should be cut. For NASA, policymakers should consider phasing out the human missions and narrowing the agency’s focus to more efficient robotic missions. Robots have come a long way since humans took that one small step in 1969.
