The upcoming surprise of the November 2020 election? Kamala Harris will travel to Texas on Friday, four days before the poll. The goal: to convince the undecided voters of this Republican stronghold which, according to the latest polls, has a small chance of faltering and falling into the hands of the Democrats, while Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate since ... 1976. In 2016, Donald Trump won the State with a 9-point lead but, according to FiveThirtyEight, he is neck and neck with Joe Biden who, a few days ago, had up to 3 points. advance in some opinion studies. “Democrats have traditionally failed to invest in Texas, despite the prize, because they believed the door was closed to Democratic presidential candidates. But, as with many things in 2020, this year is different: Biden has one foot in the door and must push it down to complete this election, ”pleaded Beto O'Rourke and Tory Gavito, former Democratic primary candidate and political strategist, in the "Washington Post". Proof that they are the bearers of a heard word: the Democrats spent $ 6.2 million on television commercials in Texas at the beginning of October, a record for a Democratic candidate, specifies "USA Today".
Some thrills in the 2018 elections
In addition to the 38 big voters of Texas, other polls are of interest to Democrats: two years after Beto O'Rourke narrowly missed victory over incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, John Cornyn is ahead of his Democratic competitor MJ Hegar for the post of senator from Texas. But the 7-point difference seems low for the outgoing senator who is seeking a fourth term, and who had collected 59% of the vote in 2014, against a former US military who had narrowly failed against the Republican John Carter, re-elected with only 50.6% of the vote in the House of Representatives in November 2018.
For elected mandates in the House of Representatives, some Democrats can do well. Still according to FiveThirtyEight, Lulu Seikaly leads by 2 points against Van Taylor, elected in 2018. Outgoing Democrat Lizzie Fletcher also has 2 points ahead of Republican Wesley Hunt. Sri Preston Kulkarni is 5 points ahead of Troy Nehls, a Republican sheriff. Gina Ortiz Jones, for her part, is one point ahead of Tony Gonzales. Even if they do not win, these four Democratic candidates show, like Beto O'Rourke in 2018, that the strongholds are more fragile than they appear after four years of presidency of Donald Trump. .. or even strengthen the mobilization of conservatives who fear a victory for the Democrats. The response is expected on November 4.