In the event of a blue wave, the Democrats could achieve the treble as in 2008
From our correspondent in the United States,
He survived the Russian Inquiry, Stormy Daniels and the Ukraine Impeachment. But in the home stretch of the campaign, Donald Trump faces two formidable enemies: the Covid, and himself. And while he is down sharply in the polls since his much-contested performance in the debate against Joe Biden, the US president could lead his party in Congress.
Air hole in the polls
For Donald Trump, the cacophony of the first televised debate seems to have been a turning point. In ten days, the gap has dropped from 6 to 10 points for Joe Biden, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Even studies for Fox News or the conservative Rasmussen Institute give the Democrat a 10 and 12 point margin.
En dix jours, depuis le 1er débat, l'écart Biden-Trump est passé de +6 à +10 dans la moyenne des sondages nationaux. L'écart se creuse en PA, WI, MI, et Trump doit même défendre la "sunbelt". Des républicains s'inquiètent d'une vague bleue sur le Congrès. pic.twitter.com/Iqiw3ONdi1— Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020
For the American president, the picture is darkening everywhere in the "swing states". Joe Biden is widening the gap in Pennsylvania and the Midwest (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota). In free fall among seniors, women and in the affluent suburbs, the American president has apparently redirected his advertising budget to defend the “sun belt” (Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, in particular). Joe Biden even leads the race in Arizona, a state Democrats have won only once in fifty years, with Bill Clinton in 1996.
La carte électorale, avec le chiffre magique à 270 grands électeurs pic.twitter.com/5DyhRKFvrI— Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020
FiveThirtyEight's model gives Biden a winner in 85% of the simulations. While the site founded by Nate Silver also favored Clinton (71%), Joe Biden's current margins are two to three times greater than in 2016, limiting the potential for a last-minute surprise.
Republicans worry about the Senate
Today, therefore, Democrats are widely favored to win the White House, but also to retain control of the House of Representatives. And while it is going to be tighter in the Senate (with only a third renewed), Republicans are starting to worry about their 3-seat majority. According to the New York Times, Texas run-off Senator John Cornyn has complained privately that Donald Trump, who tops out at 42% of voting intentions, is dragging his camp down. In Arizona, in particular, ex-astronaut Mark Kelly seems particularly well on the way to oust Republican Martha McSally.
On Friday, CNBC, Ted Cruz said he was "worried" about the Covid: "If people go back to work, if they are optimistic, we could have a fantastic election. But if on election day people are angry, we could lose the White House, and both houses of Congress, it could be a Watergate-wide bloodbath "
La carte du Sénat à 47-46 pour les D, avec 7 Etats serrés. Ballottage favorable pour les D dans 3 (IA, MI, ME). Tout pourrait se jouer en Caroline du Sud, avec Lindsey Graham qui joue sa survie, et du Nord: Thillis (R) infecté au Covid, Cunnigham (D) plombé par ses maîtresses pic.twitter.com/OMjI2KJaPk— Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020
On the current map, based on polls, the Democrats are at 47-46, with seven tight senators who should tip the scales. Democrats are on a favorable run in three states: Iowa, Maine and Michigan. On November 3, we will be watching North Carolina in particular. Outgoing Republican Thom Tillis is part of the Rose Garden Covid cluster, and Democrat Cal Cunningham is weighed down by revelations about two alleged mistresses.
In the South, it is Donald Trump's lieutenant, Lindsey Graham, who is playing for survival against young African-American candidate Jaime Harrison. Graham is the head of the Senate Judiciary Committee and will play a central role in the battle to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. At the end of September, he lamented on Fox News, “I'm getting killed financially, this money is what they (the left) hate me for. "