Taiwan first, then the United States?

Why should Americans be concerned about the island's independence?

Will the United States be drawn into another another conflict? With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many experts believe Taiwan will succumb to the Chinese Communist Party.

But it isn't that easy.

Bradley Thayer, a member of the Committee on Present Danger since its inception: "Taiwan is in some ways a linchpin, an economic linchpin, a militarily linchpin, and an ideological linchpin against the Chinese system," China informed me.

Let's take a look at those three categories.

Taiwan manufactures roughly 90% of the world's high-end semiconductors, often known as microchips, on an economic level.

These chips can be found in phones, cars, laptops, air conditioners, and even military equipment such as fighter jets. If Taiwan were to fall to China, the supply network would be completely disrupted. There is already a war without it.

Former Undersecretary of State Keith Krach told me that semiconductors are "essentially the foundation of everything." It is the world's most important industry."

Now, leaving semiconductors aside, consider the second factor: Taiwan's strategic position.

The First Island Chain, which spans from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines, includes Taiwan. The Chinese dictatorship would be able to break through the First Island Chain and gain access to the Pacific Ocean if Taiwan was no longer free.

The reason this would be dangerous is that the Pacific Ocean has deep enough waters for China's nuclear-armed submarines to avoid detection and launch a surprise attack on American coastlines.

Currently, the US can follow China's submarines and intercept them if they try to launch an attack.

Second, if Taiwan were to fall, neighboring countries would rush to reach an agreement with China in order to ensure their own safety. That would represent a significant loss of US allies in the region.

The issue of "strategic uncertainty" now arises when it comes to the question of whether America will support Taiwan. The US only has to ensure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself under this arrangement. As a result, armament sales to Taiwan have increased.

However, "strategic ambiguity" causes a sense of unease. And the Ukraine war has brought the necessity for deterrence from strength to the fore. Uncertainty is not a deterrent. Let's take a look at what the Russian assault on Ukraine has taught us before we move on to the third, and probably most crucial issue when it comes to Taiwan.

That war offered both Beijing and Taiwan many lessons, both good and harmful. If the Chinese regime invades Taiwan, the resilience exhibited in Ukraine is a good indicator of Taiwan's willingness to fight and maintain its freedoms.

There is a weighing of odds in conflict.

If it's just Beijing vs. Taiwan, the Chinese regime has a fair chance of winning. When it's Beijing against. Taiwan, Japan, and Australia, all backed by US military strength, those odds suddenly don't look so good.

However, there is a third, and perhaps most crucial, issue to consider when it comes to Taiwan.

"There will always be a need to defend Taiwan," Keith Krach told me. And the reason is that they are a democratic role model in the region."

"They also demolish Xi [Jinping's] idea that Chinese culture cannot survive democracy and requires authoritarian rule," he continued.

As a result, the Chinese communist leadership would always regard a free Taiwan as a thorn in its side, attempting to crush it. Remove it completely.

But, above and beyond commerce and military force, the Chinese dictatorship is most concerned about Taiwan's ideological danger. Freedom, whether it's freedom of religion, freedom of the press, or equality before the law; in other words, the pillars of democracy, pose a threat.

The Chinese dictatorship fears those liberties because they would allow the Chinese people to rebel against authoritarian, fear-based rule.

Taiwan, in fact, represents a parallel China. One that isn't dominated by fear's iron hand.

But it's not simply the ideological front that Beijing would use to extinguish Taiwan. It's not simply about the loss of an unofficial Democratic ally.

It would be the death of humanity as we know it.

International economies would be thrown off, and world powers would shift dramatically. If America loses its Pacific power, it will be the end of America's reign as the world's leader.


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