Following the invasion of Ukraine, various countries have taken a series of aggressive actions. North Korea successfully test-fired its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday (ICBM). The missile landed in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Japan (EEZ).
Iran claimed responsibility for a missile barrage targeting a US embassy complex in northern Iraq a few days ago. It was a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence, because such attacks are usually claimed by Iran-backed non-state groups. The IRGC claimed responsibility for the attack on an American diplomatic facility, which was an uncommon occurrence.
What explains the surge in aggressive actions?
The rise in such aggressive behaviors can be traced back to the escalating tensions produced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Traditional Russian allies North Korea and Iran are supporting Moscow.
The United States has led the charge against Moscow with sanctions, limitations, and other types of economic warfare. This is why Iran decided to launch a missile attack on a US embassy complex in northern Iraq.
On the other side, Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has joined the chorus of condemnation of Russia headed by the United States. In fact, Tokyo surprised everyone by sanctioning Moscow. This explains North Korea's choice to launch an ICBM test, which served as an unambiguous nuclear warning to the Kishida administration.
As a result, we're looking at the formation of two wide blocs, one led by Russia and the other held loosely by the US.
War at two fronts
Global security uncertainty is escalating, resulting in a multinational war situation. And it's being waged on two fronts: the economic and the security fronts.
As both North Korea and Iran have demonstrated, Russia enjoys the unequivocal support of its traditional allies. Also, Russia could receive assistance in the shape of Syrian rebels and fighters from several African countries that are thankful to Russia for protecting them from regime change conflicts and coup attempts.
China, on the other side, has thrown its support behind Vladimir Putin. There have been rumors of Chinese drones being used in offensive operations in Ukraine.
China is also assisting Russia economically. Despite Western sanctions, trade between China and Russia has remained strong. Meanwhile, despite the migration of Western corporations from Russia and the possibility of sanctions crossing over to China, Chinese tech giants have elected to stay in the nation.
So, rest assured, Putin will have the necessary support from his allies.
NATO in disarray
On the other hand, the US-led NATO appears to be in disarray. Apart from providing weaponry to Ukraine, none of the NATO members appear to be eager to directly engage in armed conflict.
The Biden administration, which instigated Ukraine in the first place, is wary of allowing the US to become involved in the escalating conflict. As a result, NATO is virtually invisible.
Other US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, are also facing a growing North Korean threat and are likely to remain neutral for the time being.
Finally, there are powerful nations such as India, the Arabs, and Israel. These countries have a long history of balancing Western and Russian relations. As a result, these countries will try to avert any major escalation by acting as a mediator between the two sides.
At the end of the day, it appears that World War 3 is on its way. Worse, it could have already begun.
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