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Frustration with the costs of the Ukraine war and the accumulating economic sanctions, according to some political observers, may lead to President Putin's demise.
The current situation, combined with the popular narrative surrounding it, has led some observers to conclude that a successful coup against Putin is possible.
According to a Vox analysis, there are two probable scenarios: a military coup or a public insurrection. Despite all of the chatter about Putin relinquishing power, neither of these eventualities appears to be a genuine possibility in Russia. This is largely owing to Putin's preparations, which are as good as any ruler could hope for. At the same time, experts on authoritarianism and Russian politics aren't ready to rule out Putin's demise.
While there may be widespread talk about a military coup or a popular uprising, Putin has prepared a backup plan for all situations.
Military takeover?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his associates have rebuilt nearly every major component of the Russian state during the last two decades in order to reduce regime problems. Putin has imprisoned or executed famous dissidents, leaving the country's ruling class dependent on his goodwill to survive.
According to the Vox story, Naunihal Singh has used statistical analysis, game theory, and historical case studies to try to find out what drives coups and what makes them likely to succeed.
Military coups are more likely in low-income nations, regimes that are neither fully democratic nor entirely authoritarian, and countries that have recently had coups. None of these circumstances apply to current Russia, a fiercely authoritarian middle-income country with no coup attempts since the early 1990s. In light of this, we can confirm that the Putin show will go on.
A people's uprising?
A popular narrative that has gained currency is that since the start of the conflict, a revolution against Putin has become more likely. According to some commentators, it is more likely than a coup. In the twenty-first century, post-Soviet republics such as Georgia, Belarus, and Ukraine have seen more public uprisings than coups. Despite this, the best information indicates that the likelihood of one erupting in Russia remains low.
The truth on the ground is that the Russian President has enormous popularity and support. As previously stated by TFIGlobal, the average Russian citizen perceives the conflict as a necessity imposed on Russia by NATO and Ukraine. A poll done by the Levada Center, a non-governmental polling agency largely trusted in the West, found that more than 66 percent of Russians blamed the crisis on America, NATO, or Ukraine, while only 4 percent blamed Russia. Many elements, especially reports of social ostracism that Russians face in the West, are only fueling these feelings.
Overall, the Russian Federation is becoming a living example of the "rally behind the flag" phenomena. It occurs when the nation rallies behind its leader during a crisis or disaster, resulting in a short-term rise in voter approval.
It can be difficult to discuss events with a low probability, such as the Putin administration's demise. However, considering all of the data in front of us, Putin is in a strong political position and has been planning for years on how to cope with a significant revolution or coup if it occurs. According to some accounts, it has been his main preoccupation since the Arab Spring, specifically the Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine in 2013. As a result, a well-prepared Putin is unlikely to face a big coup.
