The Carolina Panthers’ impossible Christian McCaffrey conundrum

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The Carolina Panthers are in the midst of an odd offseason. After a last-place finish in the NFC South, they saw their two franchise cornerstones, Luke Kuechly and Cam Newton, walk away. Kuechly retired and the Panthers released Newton after they unsuccessfully tried to trade him. Then, they signed QB Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year, …

The Carolina Panthers are in the midst of an odd offseason.

After a last-place finish in the NFC South, they saw their two franchise cornerstones, Luke Kuechly and Cam Newton, walk away. Kuechly retired and the Panthers released Newton after they unsuccessfully tried to trade him. Then, they signed QB Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year, $60 million deal, a curious move considering they are staring down a lengthy rebuild (and the fact that the already-tough NFC South just added Tom Brady). But their most peculiar challenge may involve the one star left on their team – Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey is coming off one of the most prolific seasons of all time for a running back: he led the NFL with 2,392 all-purpose yards (the third-highest mark in NFL history), passing the 1,000-yard mark in both rushing and receiving. The third-year back was so good that he made First Team All-Pro at two positions, and is still only 23 years old.

In previous years, the team might have had an easy call to make. The offseason after a star player’s third year is often the time they land a significant extension: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz both got lucrative deals last year, and Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are both expected to break the bank before the 2020 season starts.

The problem is that McCaffrey is a running back, and recent history has not been kind to the position. Two seasons ago, Rams RB Todd Gurley was coming off a similarly dominant season. In his third year in the NFL, Gurley amassed 2,093 all-purpose yards, landing the Offensive Player of the Year award and leading the Rams to a surprise playoff berth.

The Rams rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million extension, and the team went to the Super Bowl. But in the process, Los Angeles ran their star player into the ground. After amassing 535 carries over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Gurley developed arthritis in his knee and missed much of the Rams’ 2018 playoff run. He was nowhere near the same player in 2019, running for just 857 yards, and Los Angeles cut him this month – just two years into his extension.

The past two seasons have shattered the illusion that a running back is a good investment, especially as the league goes more pass-heavy. Le’Veon Bell signed a four-year, $52.5 million deal with the Jets in 2019, a still-lucrative deal despite the fact that he held out for a full year with the Steelers. Bell then had his worst season, rushing for only 789 yards behind a brutal Jets offensive line.

Former Chargers RB Melvin Gordon also held out – with less success. He missed the first four games of the 2019 season, which opened the door for 2017 undrafted free agent Austin Ekeler to take his place and dominate (122.5 yards per game over that span). Ekeler, who is more of a hybrid running back/receiver, outplayed Gordon when he returned, and ended up being the guy the Chargers paid (four years, $24.5 million). Gordon, meanwhile, settled for $16 million over two years with the Broncos.

Which puts the Panthers in a near-impossible position with McCaffrey. Considering his versatility and receiving ability, he could be viewed in a different tier as the aforementioned backs and be elevated into the wide receiver market (think a way-more-productive Ekeler).

But like Gurley, McCaffrey has had a massive workload since entering the NFL – his 403 touches led the NFL last season. Gurley was also 23 years old when he signed his extension, and an NFL workload can age a running back very quickly.

The prudent move might be for the Panthers to trade McCaffrey. They’re already rebuilding, and his value will never be higher than it is now. But losing Newton, Kuechly and McCaffrey in the same offseason might trigger an all-out fan revolt in Carolina.

It’s a tough time to be a running back in the NFL right now, but it is also challenging for teams with young, star players at the position. You don’t want to lose your guy, but you also don’t want to overpay him and end up with a bad, untradeable contract if he stops being effective. The Saints and Giants will soon face similar conundrums with Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley.

Things change quickly in the NFL, and teams are catching on to the risks of paying RBs. But even the league’s smartest minds might not know what to do with CMC.