More On: brandon nimmo
This Mets collapse doesn’t have to end like the others
Edwin Diaz implodes in ninth as Mets fall to lowly Pirates
Marcus Stroman struggles again as Mets get beat up by Pirates in Game 1
Mets could use more of this lefty-hitting dominance: Sherman
Trade deadline, Jacob deGrom among pressing issues facing Mets
The Mets have produced a better-than .500 record just three times in the past 11 seasons. On each occasion they were mediocre or worse for much of the schedule, then were among the majors’ best teams down the stretch. This year is pretty much all stretch. By late July or early August of 2015, 2016 …
The Mets have produced a better-than .500 record just three times in the past 11 seasons. On each occasion they were mediocre or worse for much of the schedule, then were among the majors’ best teams down the stretch.
This year is pretty much all stretch. By late July or early August of 2015, 2016 and 2019, the Mets were thriving and finished as well as any team in the majors. That enabled them to make the playoffs twice and end last season believing they were heading the right way to return to October in 2020.
Their formula was expected to be win when Jacob deGrom starts, then win behind a deep lineup and bullpen otherwise.
Through 10 games, though, the offense and the relief corps were among the majors’ worst. Normally this could be dismissed as a small sample. Except 10 games is more than 16 percent of the season and while the expected best parts of the team have failed to materialize, the worst of this organization certainly has: 1. Thinning rotation. 2. Inferior defense. 3. Familiar dysfunction.
The Mets completed the weekend tied for the NL’s second-worst record. But if this season can be completed, there will be the safety net of eight teams in each league reaching the playoffs. So the Mets were just two games out of a postseason spot.
Last year, if there were these expanded playoffs, a .519 winning percentage would have been necessary in the NL to make the postseason. To reach at least a .519 winning percentage a team would have to go 32-28 if 60 games are played. Thus, the Mets would need a 29-21 in their final 50 games to get to .519 or better this season (they were 30-20 in their final 50 games of 2019).
Can they play at that level? Some thoughts:
— Yoenis Cespeds is gone. In his short playing window, Cespedes was strikeout prone (15 in 34 plate appearances), but also had two homers, which tied for the team lead. In a normal season, you take a month to see if you could knock off rust caused by two years of near total inactivity and revive an impact bat. That would have been half of this schedule at least.
So the Mets should see the blessing in this. The trial period and potential distraction of Cespedes was removed once he opted out Sunday. Jed Lowrie was sent to the 45-day injured list. Discussing where that duo fits in worst Mets contracts ever is for another day. But not wasting mental energy on them for the rest of the year is now the wise move. J.D. Davis and Dom Smith are major league bats. They can play every day.
— But should they? One can DH, the other can play left field. But that will assure a below-average left fielder and keep Brandon Nimmo below average in center. Met pitchers were still striking out roughly 24 percent of hitters this year even without Noah Syndergaard, but the ball was in the air against them about five percent more without groundball maestro Marcus Stroman and Syndergaard.
If the Mets can get their offense going, they have to seriously think about just batting a strong center field defender such as Billy Hamilton or Jake Marisnick ninth and living with their meager offensive output.
— Will that offense get going? Clutch numbers tend to vacillate and the Mets have not hit well with runners on base, though getting plenty of baserunners. More concerning is just how bad the Met righty bats have been (.216 average, .279 on-base percentage). Cespedes was an offender and is now gone. Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario also have been poor. Most glaring is Pete Alonso, who against righty pitching had no extra-base hits and 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. His 62 extra-base hits vs. righties last year were the second most in the NL and his 39 homers tied for the major league lead.
Was Alonso a fluke? Probably not. It seems he is trying to validate last year and carry the team this year, which is too much to put on a still young player. Would it help at all to put Smith at first and let Alonso just get a few days as the DH?
— For now, Dellin Betances and Edwin Diaz need to be removed from as many high leverage situations as possible. Betances, like Cespedes, is probably in a period in which he needs rust knocked off to have a shot at recapturing dominance. But that is hard enough to afford in a 60-game season, harder still after a 3-7 start. Perhaps finding less leverage now will provide a force in the final 20-30 games.
As for Diaz, there is a Waiting for Godot quality to him. The stuff teases that his Mariner version will appear. But he was 70 games into his Met career. Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson have shown over time they can consistently get late outs for the Mets. Maybe Drew Smith is added to fthat group this year. For now, Diaz has to be moved earlier into games to see if the Mets can derive any upside.
