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        <title><![CDATA[What Will Biden's Infrastructure Plan End Up Costing? History Provides Some Unsettling Answers]]></title>
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<p>Here at Cato we&rsquo;ve written many times about the record of big infrastructure projects and &ldquo;megaprojects&rdquo;:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/blog?field_themes_tid=26&amp;field_departments_target_id=All">Cost overruns are rampant</a>.</li>
<li>&ldquo;<a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/edwards-law-government-cost-overruns">Here is a&nbsp;rule of thumb</a> to remember when you hear about a&nbsp;proposed government project: If a&nbsp;politician says that it will cost $1, it will end up costing $2 or more.&rdquo;</li>
<li>&ldquo;<a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/big-dig">Contractors were essentially rewarded for delays and overruns</a> with added cash and guaranteed profits.&rdquo;</li>
<li>&ldquo;<a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/californias-high-speed-train-has-done-lot-more-good-big-consultants-taxpayers-or-riders">The ongoing saga of California&rsquo;s high‐​speed bullet train</a> may end up being as classic a&nbsp;story of Democratic politicians&rsquo; hubris as the Solyndra debacle.&rdquo;</li>
<li>&ldquo;Linda Bilmes, coauthor with Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz of <em>The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict</em>, <a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/01/the-fiscal-stimulus-lessons-from-katrina-iraq-and-the-big-dig.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analyzes</a> the massive problems in three somewhat smaller government projects &mdash; <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/how-spend-trillion-dollars-without-waste-fraud">the Iraqi reconstruction effort, Hurricane Katrina reconstruction, and the Big Dig artery construction in Boston</a> &mdash; and finds that &lsquo;in any organization that starts to increase spending very rapidly there are risks of waste, fraud and inefficiency.&rsquo;&nbsp;&rdquo;</li>
<li>&ldquo;In fact, as megaprojects expert Bent Flyvbjerg explains in the following article, these grandiose projects operate by an iron law: <a href="https://www.cato.org/policy-report/january/february-2017/megaprojects-over-budget-over-time-over-over">over budget, over time, over and over again</a>.&rdquo;</li>
</ul>
<p>And now we welcome the <em>New York Times</em> to the beat with its <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/us/infrastructure-megaprojects.html?smid=tw-share">impressive Monday story</a> titled &ldquo;Years of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure.&rdquo; Ralph Vartabedian, who covered the &ldquo;bullet train&rdquo; fiasco for years at the <em>Los Angeles Times</em>, lays out problems across the country with big infrastructure projects, from a&nbsp;Honolulu transit line to the Long Island Railroad. Read the whole thing, but you can start here:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Honolulu&rsquo;s tribulations are far from a&nbsp;lone cautionary tale. To the contrary, they signal the kind of cost overruns, engineering challenges and political obstacles that have made it all but impossible to complete a&nbsp;major, multibillion‐​dollar infrastructure project in the United States on budget and on schedule over the past decade.&hellip;</p>
<p>When California voters approved a&nbsp;bond in 2008 for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/us/california-high-speed-rail.html">a&nbsp;high‐​speed rail system from Los Angeles to San Francisco</a>, the project was supposed to cost $33 billion and be completed by 2020<strong>. </strong>The job is now projected to finish in 2033 for $100 billion, though those estimates are dated and there is an $80 billion funding gap.&hellip;</p>
<p>Mr. Schofer said many projects are justified by estimating that future benefits will exceed costs, but when the costs go up astronomically, no one recalculates the ratio.</p>
<p>In a&nbsp;candid admission of how the political world operates, Willie Brown, the former mayor of San Francisco, once dismissed cost overruns on a&nbsp;transportation hub intended for the bullet train.</p>
<p>&ldquo;In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a&nbsp;down payment,&rdquo; he <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/williesworld/article/When-Warriors-travel-to-China-Ed-Lee-will-follow-4691101.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wrote in a&nbsp;guest newspaper column in 2013</a>. &ldquo;If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a&nbsp;hole and make it so big there&rsquo;s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.&rdquo;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And this is, I&nbsp;suppose, no surprise:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>U.S. Transportation Department officials declined to comment for this article.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It&rsquo;s an excellent article. My only complaint is, as <a href="https://twitter.com/CliffordAsness/status/1464949250924687363">Cliff Asness</a> and I&nbsp;both <a href="https://twitter.com/David_Boaz/status/1464960727450628110">pointed out</a> on Twitter, it would have been more useful to members of Congress and the public if it had been published during the many months that Congress was debating the Biden administration&rsquo;s $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan. Maybe members of Congress should ponder it now as they consider another, even bigger &mdash; $1.75 trillion? <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/build-back-better-cost-would-double-extensions">$4.9 trillion</a>? &mdash; &ldquo;Build Back Better&rdquo; infrastructure+more plan.</p>
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