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        <title><![CDATA[‘The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply,’ warns prominent Yale economist]]></title>
        <atom:link href="https://usagag.com/2020/06/16/the-dollar-is-going-to-fall-very-very-sharply-warns-prominent-yale-economist/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
        <link>https://usagag.com/2020/06/16/the-dollar-is-going-to-fall-very-very-sharply-warns-prominent-yale-economist/</link>
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            <media:title type="html">‘The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply,’ warns prominent Yale economist</media:title>
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        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stephen Roach, Yale University senior fellow and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, has a warning for US dollar bulls. The prominent economist says that the era of the US buck may be coming to an end and is forecasting a 35% decline soon in the US currency against its major rivals, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings.</p><p>The lecturer said during <strong>CNBC’s “Trading Nation”</strong> on Monday that the rise of China and the decoupling of the US from its trade partners is setting the stage for a dramatic weakening of the US currency in the next few years that is likely to end the supremacy of the monetary unit as the world’s reserve currency.</p><p>“The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply,” he told the business network.</p><p>Roach’s comments follow a similarly themed <strong>op-ed that he wrote in Bloomberg last week</strong>, in which he specifically declared that the “era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.</p><p>In that article, the economist said that the US economy is already “stressed” by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggested that <strong>the recession that has gripped the US in February</strong> amid the public health crisis will only amplify the dollar’s woes.</p><p>The finance expert said that the rest of the “world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism.”</p><p>On Monday, Roach said that the US’s fiscal deficit, as the government expends trillions of dollars, in an effort to mitigate the harm from COVID-19, may only make matters worse for bucks.</p><p>Meanwhile, Roach says that China’s currency, the yuan USDCNY, may garner increasing appeal from investors, as Beijing goes through a phase of structural reforms that could shift the country’s manufacturing-heavy economy to one focused more on services and one with greater consumer-led growth.</p><p>Roach makes the case that although a weaker dollar, <strong>sometimes favored by President Donald Trump</strong>, would benefit US exports in the short term, it would prove more problematic over the longer term.</p><p>One measure of the buck, the ICE US Dollar Index, has been weakening over the past 30 days, down 3.9% but is up slightly on the year, rising 0.1%, according to FactSet data.</p><p>The index measures the buck against a basket of six rival currencies, including the euro, the pound and the yen.</p><p>A weaker dollar has implications for assets and the stock market, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 index, with most debts denominated in dollars. In addition, a majority of cross-border financing and international trade are conducted in dollars.</p><p>Worries about the global economy have traditionally encouraged buying of dollars along with other havens because of the perception of the US as a stable economy and currency.</p><p>Roach, however, says that growing deficits will eventually change that perception and deliver a gut punch to the greenback.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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