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        <title><![CDATA[Technology, Not Alarmism, Will Help Fight with Climate Change]]></title>
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            <media:title type="html">Technology, Not Alarmism, Will Help Fight with Climate Change</media:title>
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        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A new policy report from the&nbsp;<a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_b2c0c79dc4344b279bcf2365336ff23b.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration</a>&nbsp;warns
 that “planetary and human systems [are] reaching a ‘point of no return’
 by mid-century, in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth 
leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order.” This 
apocalyptic vision of the year 2050 follows a long tradition of 
counterproductive doomsaying.</p><p>Former Vice President, and Democratic presidential nominee hopeful, 
Joe Biden, has recently placed the “point of no return” even sooner, in 
just 12 years’ time. “[H]ow we act or fail to act in the next 12 years 
will determine the very livability of our planet,”&nbsp;<a href="https://time.com/5600493/joe-biden-climate-proposal/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">he said</a>&nbsp;earlier this week.</p><p>Environmental problems are certainly real, but alarmists do a 
disservice to the cause of tackling those challenges when they use 
cataclysmic language to describe the near future.</p><p>As Harvard University’s Steven Pinker noted in his book Enlightenment
 Now, psychological research has shown that “people are likelier to 
accept the fact of global warming when they are told that the problem is
 solvable by innovations in policy and technology than when they are 
given dire warnings about how awful it will be”.</p><p>But instead of focusing on solutions, like nuclear power, which does 
not emit CO2, and other technological breakthroughs that have the 
potential to reduce carbon emissions, some well-meaning people resort to
 apocalyptic rhetoric. Humanity has reached the “point of no return” 
many times already, according to past doomsayers.</p><p>In 2006,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2006-al-gore-does-sundance/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Al Gore warned</a>&nbsp;that
 unless drastic measures were taken “within the next 10 years,” the 
world would “reach a point of no return.” That would place “the point of
 no return” in 2016.</p><p>Thirty years ago, in 1989, an unidentified senior U.N. environmental official&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">told the Associated Press</a>&nbsp;that
 “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea 
levels” if drastic action was not taken by the year 2000. The ocean has 
not swallowed any nations since his prognostication.</p><p>In 1982, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program&nbsp;<a href="https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=o5tlAAAAIBAJ&amp;sjid=TYwNAAAAIBAJ&amp;pg=5103,351973&amp;dq=ecological+holocaust&amp;hl=en" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Mostafa Tolba said</a>&nbsp;that
 lack of action by the year 2000 would bring “an environmental 
catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible,
 as any nuclear holocaust.” His prediction of an environmental “nuclear 
holocaust” in just 18 years failed to materialize.</p><p>Back in 1970, Harvard University biologist&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">George Wald claimed</a>&nbsp;that
 “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is
 taken against problems facing mankind.” His prediction would place the 
end of civilization sometime between 1985 and 2000.</p><p>Also in 1970, North Texas State University philosopher&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-apocalyptic-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-the-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-3/print/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Peter Gunter wrote</a>,
 “By the year 2000, 30 years from now, the entire world, with the 
exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in 
famine.”</p><p>In 1969, Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wired.com/1997/02/the-doomslayer-2/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>,
 “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not 
exist in the year 2000.” It is a good thing he did not put down money on
 that proposition, or he would have had to pay out 31 years later. (In 
fact, it would have served his bank account well to stay away from&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">wagers</a>&nbsp;entirely).</p><p>The frequency of hyperbolic, failed predictions of catastrophe would 
be more amusing if they were not so damaging to the public’s perception 
of real environmental challenges, including climate change.</p><p>Fortunately, there are also many environmentalists who hold a less 
pessimistic and more realistic view. Rockefeller University professor 
Jesse H. Ausubel, who was integral to setting up the world’s first 
climate change conference in Geneva in 1979,&nbsp;<a href="https://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/Nature_Rebounds.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">has shown</a>&nbsp;how
 technological progress allows nature to rebound. For example, 
increasing crop yields to produce more food with less land reduce the 
environmental impact of agriculture. In fact, if farmers worldwide reach
 the productivity level of the average U.S. farmer, humanity will be 
able to return a landmass the size of India back to nature.</p><p>In addition to technological progress, economic development can also 
help protect the environment. As people rise out of extreme poverty, 
they often come to care more about environmental stewardship. The 
incredible decline in Chinese poverty spurred by economic 
liberalization, for example, has coincided with better preservation of 
forests.&nbsp;<a href="https://humanprogress.org/dwworld?p=558&amp;yf=1990&amp;yl=2015&amp;col=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China had</a>&nbsp;511,807
 more square kilometers of forest in 2015 than it did in 1990. Once a 
country reaches around $4,500 in GDP per capita, forest area starts to 
rebound. This is called the “forest transition” or, more broadly, the 
“environmental Kuznets curve”.</p><p>Many other such reasons for optimism exist. Yet the new report’s 
“2050 scenario finds a world in social breakdown and outright chaos,” 
David Spratt, the research director at the Breakthrough National Centre 
for Climate Restoration,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">told&nbsp;<em>Vice</em></a>.</p><p>Not to be outdone in pessimism, Congresswoman&nbsp;<a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez_the_world_is_going_to_end_in_12_years_if_we_dont_address_climate_change.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has predicted</a>&nbsp;that “the world is going to end in 12 years” without urgent action, rather than in 31 years’ time.</p><p>In the year 353, a bishop called Hilary of Poitiers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.funeralwise.com/digital-dying/the-world-will-end-tomorrow-just-like-it-did-in-the-year-365/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">also predicted</a>&nbsp;that
 the world would end in just 12 years, in 365. It is a safe bet that 
Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez&#8217;s forecast ends up as inaccurate as his was.</p><p>Environmental challenges should be taken seriously. And just as with 
so many other problems humanity has faced, environmental problems should
 be solvable given the right technology and spreading prosperity. The 
world will still exist a dozen years from now.</p>]]></content:encoded>
                <dc:creator><![CDATA[GAGmen]]></dc:creator>
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