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        <title><![CDATA[In a Crisis, Pessimism Is Natural but Realism Is Crucial]]></title>
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            <media:title type="html">In a Crisis, Pessimism Is Natural but Realism Is Crucial</media:title>
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        <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the COVID-19 lockdown upon us, anxiety and depression are on the
 rise. It would be irresponsible to downplay the risks that coronavirus 
poses to America’s health and economy. But excessive pessimism is also 
in no one’s interest. Problems and their purported solutions must be 
evaluated coolly and dispassionately. Facts, logic, reason and science, 
not emotions, must guide us in this time of troubles.</p><p>Unfortunately, some of our most basic impulses evolved&nbsp;at a time when the world was very different from our own. “Our
 modern skulls house a stone age mind,” note Leda Cosmides and John 
Tooby from the University of California, Santa Barbara. The mind can be 
decidedly harmful in helping us address today’s problems, including 
those of anxiety and depression.</p><p>What sort of “habits of the mind” have we developed over the hundreds
 of millennia we spent living in a world that was more inhospitable than
 our own? First, we have evolved to prioritize bad news. “Organisms
 that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities,” wrote the 
eminent Princeton University psychologist Daniel Kahneman in his 2011 
book <em>Thinking, Fast and Slow</em>, “have a 
better chance to survive and reproduce.” That is a very powerful impulse
 that can deceive even the most dispassionate and rational observers.</p><p>As Mark Trussler and Stuart Soroka from McGill University in Canada found in their 2014 paper “Consumer
 Demand for Cynical and Negative News,” even when people expressly say 
that they are interested in more good news, eye tracking experiments 
show that they are in fact much more interested in bad news. “Regardless of what participants say,” the authors of the study conclude, people “exhibit a preference for negative news content.”&nbsp;</p><p>And so, when you read the news, make sure that in addition to reading
 about the latest COVID-19 death count, you also ingest the latest 
technological, medical and scientific breakthroughs that will bring the 
pandemic to an end.</p><p>Second, as the Harvard University psychologist Steven Pinker noted in his 2018 book <em>Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress</em>,
 the nature of cognition and nature of news interact in ways that make 
us think that the world is worse than it really is. News, after all, is 
about things that happen. Things that did not happen go unreported. As 
he points out, we “never see a reporter saying to the camera, ‘Here
 we are, live from a country where a war has not broken out.’” 
Newspapers and other media, in other words, tend to focus on the 
negative. As the old journalistic adage goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”</p><p>Remember that in addition to the horrors of COVID-19, there is a lot 
of good that’s still taking place in the world. Yes, even in the midst 
of a pandemic, people fall in love, give birth to healthy babies and 
help strangers to get by.</p><p>Third, the media seldom provide a “compared to
 what” analysis or put terrible events in their “proper” context. 
Coronavirus is deadly, but it is not the bubonic plague, which had a 
mortality rate of 50 percent, or the septicemic plague, which had a 
mortality rate of 100 percent. Luckily for the long-term wellbeing of 
our species, we have been re-awakened to the mortal danger posed by 
communicable diseases by a far milder virus. Hopefully, human and 
financial resources will be deployed by governments and the private 
sector to ensure that next time we are ready. Laws will be changed and 
regulations streamlined to ensure that we are nimbler, which is to 
say&nbsp;faster, in responding to future emergencies.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Fourth, the arrival of social media makes bad news immediate and more
 intimate. Until relatively recently, most people knew very little about
 the countless wars, plagues, famines and natural catastrophes happening
 in distant parts of the world. In 1759, the Scottish philosopher Adam 
Smith wrote in his <em>The Theory of Moral Sentiments</em>,</p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote"><p>&#8220;The most frivolous disaster which could
 befall [a man] himself would occasion a more real disturbance. If he 
was to lose his little finger tomorrow, he would not sleep tonight; but,
 provided he never saw them, he will snore with the most profound 
security over the ruin of a hundred millions of his brethren, and the 
destruction of that immense multitude seems plainly an object less 
interesting to him, than this paltry misfortune of his own.”</p></blockquote><p>Yet, as we are quickly finding out, internet in general and social 
media in particular are also enabling us to work, while maintaining 
social distance. It allows us to learn about the suffering of others, 
including those in distant places, and come to their assistance.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Fifth, the human brain also tends to overestimate danger due to what psychologists call “the
 availability heuristic” or a process of estimating the probability of 
an event based on the ease with which relevant instances come to mind. 
Unfortunately, human memory recalls events for reasons other than their 
rate of recurrence. When an event turns up because it is traumatic, the 
human brain will overestimate how likely it is to recur.</p><p>Right now, tens of thousands of people are fighting for their lives 
with the help of ventilators. Others have lost that fight. While that 
outcome is tragic, don’t immediately assume that that’s the fate that 
awaits you. To keep depression and anxiety at bay, think of the tens of 
thousands of people who are on the mend instead.</p><p>Sixth, as psychologists Roy Baumeister from University of Queensland 
and Ellen Bratslavsky from Cuyahoga Community College found, “bad
 is stronger than good.” Consider how much happier you can imagine 
yourself feeling. Then consider: how much more dejected can you imagine 
yourself to feel? The answer to the latter question is: infinitely. 
Research shows that people fear losses more than they delight in gains; 
harp on setbacks more than they relish successes; resent criticism more 
than they feel encouraged by praise.&nbsp;</p><p>Try not to dwell on the worst case COVID-19 scenarios and always 
remember that, statistically-speaking, most people have a good chance of
 getting through the pandemic without so much as exhibiting minor 
symptoms of the sickness.</p><p>Seventh, good and bad things tend to happen on different timelines. 
Bad things, such as the outbreak of a pandemic, can happen quickly. Good
 things, such as the strides humanity has made in the fight against 
HIV/AIDS, tend to happen incrementally and over a long period of time. 
As Kevin Kelly from <em>Wired </em>magazine put it, “Ever since the Enlightenment and the invention of Science, we’ve managed to create a tiny bit more than we’ve
 destroyed each year. But that few percent positive difference is 
compounded over decades in to what we might call civilization … 
[Progress] is a self-cloaking action seen only in retrospect.”</p><p>To that end, remember that our species has eradicated or almost 
eradicated smallpox, cholera, typhoid, measles, polio and whooping 
cough. We have made great progress in our struggle against malaria and 
HIV/AIDS. And the speed of our successes is increasing. The earliest 
credible evidence of smallpox comes from India in 1500 BC. The disease 
was eradicated in 1980. That’s 3.5 thousand years of suffering. In 1980,
 we started to learn about HIV/AIDS. By 1995, we had the first 
generation of drugs that kept infected people alive. That’s 15 years of 
suffering. The Ebola epidemic raged between 2014 and 2016. The first 
Ebola vaccine was approved in the United States in December 2019. That’s
 five years of suffering. Last December, the coronavirus did not have a 
name. Today, human trials for the coronavirus vaccine are underway 
throughout the world.</p><p>Eighth, humans also suffer from a psychological quirk known by such names as “turning-point-itis,”
 pessimism extrapolation or the end of history illusion. As the former 
Wall Street Journal financial columnist Morgan Housel observed, even 
people who are aware of the progress that humanity has made in the past,
 “underestimate our ability to change in the 
future.” “If you underestimate our ability to adapt to unsustainable 
situations,” he noted, “you’ll
 find all kinds of things that currently look bad and can be 
extrapolated into disastrous. Extrapolate college tuition increases and 
it’ll be prohibitively expensive in 10 years. Extrapolate government deficits and we’ll be bankrupt in 30 years. Extrapolate a recession and we’ll
 be broke before long. All of these could be reasons for pessimism if 
you assume no future change or adaptation. Which is crazy, given our 
long history of changing and adapting.” Indeed. Humans have changed and 
adapted in the past and we shall do so and thrive once more.</p><p>Finally, keep your your spirits up. Humans, unlike other members of 
the animal kingdom, are intelligent beings who are uniquely capable of 
innovating their way out of pressing problems. We have developed 
sophisticated forms of cooperation that increase our chances not only to
 survive, but to prosper. There are, in other words, rational grounds 
for optimism about the future. And while it is true that, as the 
financial brokers like to say, past performance is no guide to future 
performance, note the words of the British historian and statesman 
Thomas Babington Macaulay, who wrote in 1830:&nbsp;</p><blockquote class="wp-block-quote"><p>“In every age 
everybody knows that up to his own time, progressive improvement has 
been taking place; nobody seems to reckon on any improvement in the next
 generation. We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who say 
society has reached a turning point – that we have seen our best days. 
But so said all who came before us and with just as much apparent 
reason. &#8230; On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement 
behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</p></blockquote><p>As you go through the COVID-19 lockdown, remember all the different  ways in which your mind is may be playing tricks on you. Recognize that  you are a member of a species that’s always on  the lookout for danger and that your predisposition toward the negative  provides a market for purveyors of bad news. The negativity bias is  deeply ingrained in our brains. It cannot be wished away. The best that  we can do is to realize that we are suffering from it.</p><p><em>By<strong> Marian L. Tupy</strong>,  a Senior Policy Analyst at the Cato Institute&#8217;s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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