Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis

As a result of the "breakdown," we should re-evaluate and revise the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)-based target zone. Zooming out is an excellent way to accomplish this. Figures 1 and 2 depict the overall EWP counts I am tracking for BTC.

Figure 1: Monthly Bitcoin charts with a detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

One more Bull run higher vs. two more Bull runs higher.

Even though BTC is falling faster than expected, my long-term upside target remains the same once this correction is over: $100K+. Figure 1 depicts a path for Bitcoin to reach this astronomical level. In this case, BTC should be in the fourth wave of the cycle. Cycle waves 1 and 2 were completed in 2011, according to my observations. C-4 appears to be morphing into a zig-zag in more detail.

This zig-ideal zag's target zone is $25905-12125 (C=0.618x A to C=A). As previously stated, based on the smaller waves and perfect path, $24-22K appeared to be a very viable target zone at first. However, given that we can only "anticipate, monitor, and adjust," the latter is now prudent.

Once C-4 is completed, which will require a break back above the recent highs in May, C-5 should be a 1000 percent rally from those lows based on previous halving cycles. See this page.

Thus, depending on where BTC bottoms (think high- to low-$10,000s), we can extrapolate the Cycle 5 target in greater detail.

The second alternative, and please keep in mind that I do not have a bearish EWP count that indicates BTC will immediately fall to $0 from current levels, suggests the cryptocurrency has two more legs higher to go: major-5 of Cycle-3 and Cycle-5. See Figure 2 for more information.

Figure 2: Monthly Bitcoin charts with a detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

Cycle wave three will aim for $100,000 or more, but a larger 4th and 5th wave will follow: Cycle waves 4 and 5. The former should return Bitcoin to around $30-50K before a rally to $300-500K. (see also here). This option becomes invalid when BTC trades below the 2019 highs ($13600), because the first and fourth waves of an impulse cannot overlap.

Bottom Line and Bitcoin Price Prediction

As a result, we now have a clear set of parameters/if-then scenarios. If BTC can stay above $13600 and rally back above the May highs, and eventually the March highs, it has the potential to reach $300,000+ in the coming years.

However, if BTC crosses that level at any time, the Bitcoin Bull will come to an end once it reaches $100K+. So, in any case, we are now prepared. Being forewarned is being forearmed.

From: Dr. Arnout Ter Schure, Fx Empire