More On: ripple lawsuit update
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XRP gains support from SEC v. Ripple case updates
Only 97 out of 500
The plaintiff in the SEC v. Ripple case has just filed its response to Ripple's request to get rid of the Metz Supplemental Expert Report.
In fact, this dispute is taking place because the Court only allowed each expert witness to submit a report and then another report. This is why RIpple wants to strike the SEC's "supplemental" report, which the SEC did not do.
The three things that the SEC didn't do right: proper procedure, a deadline, and simple math.
A new argument from the SEC is that the rules for excluding expert evidence favor the plaintiff, and that excluding the supplemental report, which is a statistical look at the economic significance of Ripple's news releases, would give the defendants an unfair advantage. In the end, the agency thinks that Dr. Metz's opinions should not be stricken down or blocked.
"What a terrible response. It's too many times the same thing, which is a sign of a weak argument, and it wrongly accuses Ripple of not following proper procedure when the SEC did. "It almost comically offers to agree to reopen a deadline that the SEC blew," said lawyer James K. Filan, who is following the case.
A lot of people aren't happy with how the SEC responded to Ripple's request to strike. The report itself has been found to be bad at math.
XRP user @TheXRPArsenal on Twitter said that "97 out of 500 'new' price rises makes up about 20% of the data." It was found that 40% of BTC/ETH moves led to $XRP moves. 40% is more than 20%.
In addition, 40% of the 7 years that were looked at had 1022 days in them. 10 times as long as Dr. Metz says that $XRP moved up because of "Ripple news," $XRP moved up for a long time. To show that $XRP is more tied to the general market than Ripple, look at these stats.
In the text below, you can read the SEC's statistical findings on the news about XRP.
In his first report, Dr. Metz was asked to look at XRP's price movements and see if Ripple's actions had an effect on XRP's price. Dr. Metz then did an event study that looked at more than 500 separate news announcements by Ripple or news items about Ripple that were linked to Ripple's website. He used a scientifically-accepted statistical analysis to see if the price of XRP rose in response to several types of positive news about Ripple or XRP.
Dr. Metz found that the price of XRP rose a lot when there were 8 important events, 5 new trading platforms for XRP, 77 Ripple customer and product developments, and 7 Ripple commercialization projects. As a result, Dr. Metz also found 105 days in which positive Ripple news events were linked to significant abnormal (positive) XRP price gains that couldn't be explained by random chance.
Then, Dr. Metz looked at how XRP prices and the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum were linked. This was to see if the price movements of XRP over time followed the price movements of those other tokens. Dr. Metz found that, between 2014 and 2020, the price movements of BTC and ETH were only 40% linked to the price movements of XRP.
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